Despite rate hikes by GCC central banks since 2021, confidence among business owners remains high across the MENA region. A 2023 Mastercard survey revealed that 70% of SMEs are optimistic about their growth prospects over the next 12 months5.
In fact, confidence is particularly strong in Saudia Arabia, where 93% of SMEs expected growth, followed closely by Qatar and UAE5.
This optimism is driven, in large part, by governments’ strategic efforts to diversify their economies away from oil dependence. In the UAE, for example, the National SME program provides financing and mentorship, while Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 targets SME growth through initiatives like the Monshaat Authority and various financial programs.
Other countries, such as Bahrain and Qatar, have introduced similar measures, from grants and training to loan guarantees and startup incubators. These efforts are bearing fruit as non-oil sectors in MENA are seeing significant growth, even during a time of higher-for-longer interest rates.
In 2023, the UAE and Saudi Arabia exceeded the International Monetary Fund’s non-oil GDP growth projections in the first two quarters, clocking in at 5.9% and 4.2%, respectively6. While things eventually cooled and stabilized, the report explained that each country’s PMI indicator “still indicates strong non-oil expansion”.
As for 2025, the U.A.E. Central Bank estimates aggressive non-oil GDP growth of 5.3%2. The region’s economic resilience offers the opportunity to invest in high-growth economies that are better insulated from global volatility.